Latest UT Tyler Poll Reveals Voters’ Opinions Leading Up to 2024 Presidential Debate

June 26, 2024 | Hannah Buchanan

Border security, economy among top issues with Texas voters polled

Ahead of a televised debate this week, former President Donald Trump holds an 8% advantage with a sample of registered Texas voters when voters consider candidates on the ballot, according to the latest survey by The University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research. The advantage is 6%, with likely voters on the assumption this is a high turnout election like four years ago.

As a head-to-head contest, the share of the electorate that supports Donald Trump and Joe Biden is statistically the same as UT Tyler’s previous poll before the March primaries, according to Dr. Ken
Wink, UT Tyler professor and poll director.

“If the debate affects the race, it could come from the absence of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Support for the Kennedy/Shanahan Campaign in Texas has lagged national trends, despite acute attention surrounding the selected running mate, Nicole Shanahan, and not securing the nomination of the Libertarian Party,” Wink said. “Absence from this debate means Kennedy will not be able to present himself as a clear alternative to the major party nominees on the issues that matter to voters.”

The top issue among voters in Texas continues to be securing the border, with 38% of registered
voters listing it as the most important issue facing Texas. Both candidates have a topic that is popular with most voters. Wink noted that a small majority of registered voters in Texas (52%) believe a border wall is necessary, but a larger share of Texas voters support President Biden’s recent executive order to limit the amount of asylum claims that are processed (59%). Survey respondents indicated higher satisfaction with how Gov. Greg Abbott is handling immigration (53%) than President Biden on the same issue (30%).

“Debating these issues at the forefront of a campaign can also shape public support for issues that are somewhat similar like Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA. Ten years after President Obama’s executive order, support among Texans was the lowest since we started polling about the issue, at 41%,” Wink added.

The economy is another topic of concern for most voters and one the candidates will look to
address in the debate, according to Wink. Inflation was the second most important policy listed by
respondents to the survey, and 49% of respondents said higher prices have had a major impact on
their household’s current financial situation. Wink also noted that most Texans disapprove of how
President Joe Biden is handling the national economy (59%), while a majority approve of Gov.
Abbott’s handling of the Texas economy (53%).

“In thinking about the national economy, 24% of Texas respondents think the economy has gotten somewhat worse, while 35% say it has gotten much worse, so these views about the economy are hurting President Biden with Texas voters,” Wink said.

The candidates will also be able to differentiate themselves on the issue of abortion access, by
discussing access to the abortion pill and a decision on May 31 by the Texas Supreme Court to
uphold the state’s abortion ban. On this issue, Texas voters largely see this issue as a policy that
may require federal legislation, Wink noted. Half of the survey respondents (50%) support a
national law that would protect abortion access in each state, whereas 19% would like to see a ban
in all states. Thirty-one percent of respondents favor the current practice of allowing each state to
set its own abortion policy. Reponses, Wink noted, also show Texas voters are willing to support
exceptions to abortion bans at different levels of pregnancy, with public support declining as the
expected delivery date gets closer.

Voter perceptions of Biden’s and Trump’s ability to be the commander-in-chief appear to be shaped by partisanship, Wink said. Eighty percent of voters who prefer the Democratic Party are confident in Joe Biden’s ability to lead the U.S. military, and only 14% of those Democratic voters have confidence in Donald Trump. Likewise, 85% of Republicans are confident in Donald Trump’s ability to command the U.S. military, and only 12% trust President Biden.

“Changing the perception of a candidate’s leadership on the world stage may be a key to winning support from pure independents, many of whom shared they were not confident at all in President Biden (38%) or former President Trump (43%) to lead the U.S. military,” he added.

“How this plays out could depend on which conflict voters are referencing. Thinking about the
Russia-Ukraine War that began in February 2022, independent voters are mostly unsure, at 54%,
about the best role of the United States, while Democratic voters approve of supporting Ukraine,
58%, and Republican voters believe the U.S. should have less involvement, at 65%,” Wink said.
“However, in the ongoing conflict in Gaza that began in October 2023, 48% of Texas voters agree
the U.S. should provide aid to Israel. Support for U.S. engagement in Israel also varies along party
lines – Democrats at 39%, Republicans at 60%, Independents at 48%. It will be difficult for
candidates to provide one clear message about foreign policy to attract voters.”

With so many issues to debate, it is not clear Donald Trump’s felony conviction in New York on May
30, 2024, has shifted Texans’ vote intentions in November, Wink added. “Forty-five percent of likely
voters said they were less likely to support Trump due to the conviction, but 54% said they were
just as likely, at 30%, or more likely, at 24%, to support Trump. These numbers are very similar to
what we found in our poll of registered voters in February, before the trial verdict,” he said.

With a mission to improve educational and health care outcomes for East Texas and beyond, UT Tyler offers more than 90 undergraduate and graduate programs to nearly 10,000 students. Through its alignment with UT Tyler Health Science Center and UT Health East Texas, UT Tyler has unified these entities to serve Texas with quality education, cutting-edge research and excellent patient care. Classified by Carnegie as a doctoral research institution and by U.S. News & World Report as a national university, UT Tyler has campuses in Tyler, Longview, Palestine and Houston.